Smokefree law could cut youth smoking faster than expected

Raising the legal age for tobacco sales could cut youth smoking below 5% decades sooner, according to new research from the University of Nottingham.

The ‘smokefree generation’ law, originally proposed by former Conservative prime minister Rishi Sunak and set to take effect in January 2027, aims to phase out the sale of tobacco to anyone born on or after 1st January 2009. 

Researchers at the University of Nottingham used detailed modelling to assess the potential impact of the law. They found smoking rates among 12- to 30-year-olds could drop below 5% decades earlier if the age of tobacco sales is raised. 

The team compared two scenarios: one in which the law is introduced and one in which it isn’t. Their analysis suggests the law could reduce smoking rates below 5% by the 2040s, while the government predicts 1.7 million fewer smokers by 2075.

Researchers warned that men and people in the country’s most deprived areas are less likely to reach the 5% target unless extra support is offered. 

Key findings from the study include:

• The law could accelerate declines in smoking 
• Tens of thousands of extra healthy years of life could be gained. By 2075, the policy could deliver around 88,000 additional years of healthy life 
• Benefits would be largest in disadvantaged communities. About 30% of total healthy life years gained are expected in the most deprived 20% of neighbourhoods

Nathan Davies, lead author and researcher in the School of Medicine at the University of Nottingham said: ‘This modelling suggests the smokefree generation law could help stop young people from ever starting to smoke, accelerating progress towards a tobacco-free future.

‘But how the policy is implemented will matter. Stronger enforcement, communication and stop smoking support in communities where smoking remains most common could help ensure the benefits are shared across the country and achieved more rapidly.‘

The team’s projections are more cautious than the government’s, with new smokers expected to fall by 5% a year rather than 30%. Yet, the study suggests the law could still bring significant health benefits. 

‘We cannot yet be certain of the full impact of the smokefree generation law, but this modelling shows it could be a once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform the nation’s health for the long term,’ Hazel Cheeseman, chief executive of Action on Smoking and Health, said. ‘It also sends a clear warning: without further action, some people will be left behind.’

Alizée Froguel, prevention policy manager at Cancer Research UK, added: ‘Smoking is the leading cause of cancer deaths in England. This study highlights what a landmark step the age of sale legislation will be in helping protect future generations from a lifetime of deadly, costly addiction.’

The full study can be read here. 

Image: Haim Charbit/UnSplash

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