Research suggests spending on special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) in England is set to more than double between 2015 and 2028.
Today (21st January) the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) published its annual report on education spending in England for 2025/26, which found that while SEND funding is set to rise, there isn’t enough money earmarked to cover the increase.
Funded by the Nuffield Foundation, the report revealed that so far, a lot of the extra cost has been met by reducing funding for mainstream schools.
Between 2019 and 2025, overall spending rose by 10% in real terms, but spending per pupil in mainstream schools rose by just 5%. What’s more, the total spending per pupil in 2025 was around the same as in 2010.
Looking ahead, The Office for Budget Responsibility predicts a £6bn gap between expected funding and SEND costs by 2028, equating to around 9% of the total schools budget.
Against this backdrop, the government has committed to freezing the overall schools budget in real terms between 2025 and 2028. Falling pupil numbers could free up around £1.8bn, but the IFS warns rising costs could outstrip inflation.
Against this backdrop, the report shows the government spends almost £9bn a year on childcare entitlements and more families than expected are using the new childcare offers.
The report also shows the government spends almost £9bn a year on childcare and more families than expected are using the new offers. What’s more, the report outlines funding has shifted from disadvantaged children to working families, who now get the largest share of support.
Luke Sibieta, a research fellow at the IFS, said: ‘The most important education issue facing the government is the growing dysfunction in the special educational needs system. The problems here are not new, but they have been growing, and the government is right to stress the importance of reform for the sake of everyone involved – children, families, schools and councils.
‘But we have now reached crunch time. In the near term, ministers face a stark set of choices: slow the growth of SEND spending, accept an ongoing squeeze on mainstream school funding, and/or inject additional resources into education through higher taxes or reductions elsewhere. Reform must be part of the picture.’
Meanwhile, the IFS outlined spending on adult skills and apprenticeships is 25% lower than in 2010/11.
Likewise, in higher education, teaching spending per student is lower than 2010, although the government has committed to increasing tuition fees in line with inflation. However, changes to student loan repayment rules mean a lot of graduates will repay more over their lifetimes.
Josh Hillman, director of education at the Nuffield Foundation, added: ‘Education spending in England is at a crossroads: tight budgets, escalating pressures, and shifting demographics demand hard choices to ensure opportunity and positive outcomes for all children and young people.
‘What is clear from this latest analysis, is that without decisive action, rising SEND costs will dwarf available resources and undermine the promise of high-quality education, while uneven pupil numbers will force policymakers to choose between making savings or reinvesting to improve quality and reduce class sizes.’
The report can be read in full here.
Image: Erika Fletcher/UnSplash
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