New analysis shows the government are cutting NHS elective waiting times, but warns current trends fall sort of restoring the 18-week standard by 2029.
Since Labour took office, reducing elective care waits has been a key priority. Prime minister Keir Starmer said in the next four years 92% of patients should receive treatment within 18 weeks of being given a referral.
New research, published today, from the Health Foundation analysed current trends and found some progress has been made. When Labour was first elected, 7.6 million people were on the waiting list, and only 58.8% were treated within 18 weeks. But over the past year, more patients have been treated than added to the list. By the end of 2024, 61.3% were seen within 18 weeks, and the waiting list dropped to 7.4 million.
As such, the Health Foundation estimates the waiting list could drop to 4.7 million by July 2029 and 92% of patients will have to wait 20.3 weeks for treatment. While these statistics point to a more optimistic picture, they ultimately fall short of the government’s target.
Sadly, the government’s interim goals for 2026 also look set to be missed. The Health Foundation outlined:
- The percentage of waits lasting less than 18 weeks is projected to hit 63.4% by March next year
- Only 38% of NHS trusts are on track to improve their 18-week waiting times by at least 5 percentage points
- The number of patients waiting longer than 52 weeks is expected to drop to 2.2% by March 2026, which is still far from the target of 1%
According to experts, rising referrals, unreported removals from waiting lists and ongoing NHS strikes are all reasons why progress could remain slow.
Dr Francesca Cavallaro, senior analytical manager at the Health Foundation, said: ‘The government has clearly made progress in reducing NHS waiting times. But on current trends, our analysis shows that the NHS would just fall short of meeting the 18-week standard by the end of the parliament.’
‘The scale of the challenge remains significant, and even getting close to meeting the target would be a considerable achievement,’ Dr Cavallaro continued. ‘This will require not just more activity, but smarter use of resources and continued investment in the NHS workforce and infrastructure. And there are several factors that could hold back progress, including if future referrals rise faster than expected and the potential impact of further industrial action.’
What’s more, Dr Cavallaro explained the slow progress could also affect wider areas of the NHS. She said it could impact ‘improving access to GPs, which we know is the public’s top priority’.
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